Well friends, it is truly a sad day on the Niner-front… Brett Favre and those pesky Packers bounced the Niners out of the playoffs, but all is not lost, and this season was a great success even with the early playoff exit. But there were other games this weekend, and although the most important one didn’t end up the way I had hoped, it was still an entertaining weekend of football…

So let’s move to the Wildcard Top Five…

Number 5

Last week I asked myself if I we would see the good Jay Fiedler or the bad Jay Fiedler in Sunday’s game against the Ravens, I knew that if the good Jay Fiedler showed up, this would be an entertaining game and the Dolphins would most likely come out on top. However, if the bad Jay Fiedler were to be the one taking snaps that day, the Dolphins would be out faster than you can say Marty Schottenheimer.

Well, with the result of that game, it looks like the bad Jay Fiedler was not the only “bad” player to show up for the Dolphins. The Dolphins also had their “bad” defense show up for this game too, the defense which took the field against the Niners and Rams this year (where they lost those game by a total of 53pts), the defense that couldn’t stop a walk-game, much less a run-game. The Dolphins defensive interior played so bad that they actually made Terry Allen, Moe Williams AND Jason Brookins look really, really good. I thought for sure that the Dolphins would put up a good fight in this game, and hopefully send those annoying Ravens home for the year, but I guess they will have to wait until next year to fail to show up in big games.

Seriously, has there been a more “Jekyll and Hyde” team this year? I think that Skins would make a case, maybe the Colts would too, but my vote goes to the Dolphins for their efforts this year. Think about it, the Dolphins had games that they won, where they beat some good teams (18-15 over Raiders, 30-10 over Patriots, 41-6 over Colts) and then they lost to other teams, teams thought to be in their caliber (42-10 loss to Rams, 21-17 loss to Jets, 24-0 loss to Jets, 21-0 loss to Niners). The Dolphins simply didn’t show up for some games, and I think they were lucky to be 11-5. I will say this again (for the record), the Miami Dolphins will not win a SuperBowl with Jay Fiedler at the helm, bottom line, it just wont happen.

(Now I hear that the Dolphins are courting Troy “Ache man” Aikman? Well, moving from a “Jekyll and Hyde” QB to an “old, gun-shy, punch drunk” one is not necessarily a step – or stumble, in Aikman’s case – in the right direction.)

Number 4

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did another amazing job of underachieving this year, didn’t they? It seems that every year we hear about the Tampa Bay Bucs, and how they are on a lot of those “experts” SuperBowl picks, and every year, we see the Tampa Bay Bucs get sent home packing really, really early. Now the Bucs did lose to a quality team, in the Eagles, but they did so with a listless, uninspired effort that ended their season, and ultimately, Tony Dungy’s tenure as their head coach (his doom is imminent). Well, these things happen folks, and although Dungy is a quality guy and a good coach, I think his system is just too conservative to win the big games.

Dare to challenge me on that statement? Well, take this for proof…

Keyshawn Johnson hauled in a monstrous 106 passes this season, and of those 106 he got in the endzone only once. Once! I think a band of near-sighted Trekkies would score more than Keyshawn for crissakes! Now I know that people are going to say, “Well, he is a possession receiver after all.” Well I think that is a load of bull, possession receiver or no, he should still be able to get possession of the damn ball in the endzone more than one time out of 106 tries. Also, Brad Johnson threw 559 passes this year, completing 60.7% of those passes, but he only averaged 6.08 yards per attempt, which is by far the lowest among QB’s with at least 3,000 yards passing this season (Kurt Warner led the league with 8.85 yards per attempt).

Those stats alone prove that although Dungy’s style is not completely useless, it is flawed enough to prevent his team’s from winning big games. Bottom line is, you can’t win big games without being able to make big plays. That is why the Bucs have been so rudely bounced out of the playoffs in recent years.

Number 4A

I’m going to go off on a tangent here and talk about that “yards per attempt” stat for QB’s. I think that is the most overlooked stat in the game today, with passer rating, total yards and TD passes running the gamut as measuring sticks for a passer’s greatness. If you think about it, the yards per attempt is just as key as those ones I just mentioned, for the simple reason that it measures the average distance gained each time you attempt to throw, not just for each time you complete a throw. If a guy goes off for 210yds and 2TDs you would think that would be a good day right? But what if I told you that this player went 19-47 to get there? It changes the whole perception of the day, doesn’t it?

(This player would have had a 4.47ypa that day)

Call me crazy, but I think that the average distance a team gains each time their QB drops back to pass is just as important as the percentage of those passes he completed. Am I completely off my rocker here? I don’t know, but I guess that is what makes that complicated passer-rating number even more valuable, because it takes into account all of those obscure stats.

(By the way, I think that the dudes who came up with the formulae for the NFL QB passer rating and the BCS rankings should be recruited by the U.S. government to come up a new theory for cold fusion or something, don’t you?)

Number 3

Another team with a flawed system is the New York Jets, who also were given early access to tee-times by the Oakland Raiders on Saturday (losing 38-24, in a game that wasn’t as close as it sounds). The Jets dinked and dunked their way through the season, but when it came to crunch time, they just couldn’t get the job done. I’ll even be so bold as to make another strong statement here, the Jets will NEVER, EVER win a SuperBowl with Vinny Testverde playing QB for them, and I mean never. Sorry Jets’ fans, but I think (uh-oh “A Few Good Men” quote and reference alert!) “You don't want the truth because, deep down in places you don't talk about at parties” you know I’m right.

(That line from AFGM is by Col Nathan Jessop when he is squaring off with Lt. Daniel Caffey in the courtroom over the infamous "Code Red"… truly a goose-bump moment for the ages… anyway… I’m rambling again…)

Ok, so where was I? Oh yeah… I was cruising on Vinny a little bit. Well, I think you have to agree with me here, for obvious reasons. And although I love to see guys like that suddenly pull the “screw you sportswriters” move and blow up a huge season or a huge post season run, I just cannot see that happening with V-Test (how do you like that nickname I just coined for Vinny?). Vinny will go down in NFL lore as one of the many QB’s who came close to joining that upper echelon of QB’s but just couldn’t seal the deal. You can quote me on that.

Now as for the Raiders, I think the certainly quelled all those “tired old players” rumors this weekend, didn’t they? In a performance rivaled only by Brett Favre’s (more on that bit of disgusting magic later), Rich Gannon brought his merry band of pirates closer to their ultimate goal. Gannon was brilliant, going 23-29 for 295yds and 2TDs (AND a ypa of 10.19… so there!), which computed out to an even more brilliant passer rating of 131.9. Not bad for a guy who some thought was getting tired late in the season. Of course we can’t forget the effort put forth by one Charlie Garner, who rushed 15 times for 158yds, which included a spectacular 80yd TD run which effectively sealed the deal for the Raiders.

(I guess my prediction of a Raiders – Steelers AFC championship game still has a chance, doesn’t it?)

Number 2

Now you didn’t actually think that I would go without mentioning the stellar performance that Jerry Rice put forth, did you? Granted, Rice now plays for a team I hate more than most other teams, but when a former Niner goes off for a game like that in this stage of his career, you have to give him credit. Rice’s storied career has had many, many huge games, but this one has to be pretty special to him, for the simple reason that no one thought he could (or would) do it. Rice corralled 9 passes for a huge 183yds on Saturday, for an average of 20.3 per catch (almost 6 full yards higher than his illustrious career average). Rice has to be feeling good right now, and even if the Raiders don’t make it all the way to the show, Rice can feel this season was a brilliant success, and he can feel that he can still not only contribute, but dominate a game on occasion.

(By the way – sorry, another aside here – is there any theme more common these days than the whole “I’ve got a chip on my shoulder and have to prove all my doubters wrong” theme? We see, read and hear about it time and time again, how a player was passed over in the draft or he was told by coaches that he was too small – something I call the “Rudy Syndrome” – or how a checkered past had scared away teams or how a player is too old or too injured to do this or that. If you think about it, it is a theme we hear all the time. Am I the only one who notices these things?)

Number 1

Ok, onto the somber event of the column. Onto dealing with the fact that my favorite team in the world had its season ended on Sunday. Onto an off-season of what-if’s and what might have been’s. And onto another SuperBowl that won't include my beloved 49ers.

Woe is me… or was me, I guess.

After dealing with the loss, where I think that one play made all the difference, I then had to deal with the numerous phone calls and emails (from friends, colleagues and a few spiteful readers) telling me about it. So after coming to the defense of this team, I realized something.

This season was a success.

It was a success because we were picked by many to win 7, maybe 8 games at best. It was a success because our young defense grew up in dog years this season. It was a success because our offense still ranked in the top 5 in the NFL, even after losing two major pieces of last season's puzzle (Garner and Rice). It was a success because we got to a point where not many thought we could, a point where these young players started believing they belonged to be there, a spot that will make those young players hungry to get even further. So, what I am trying to say, I guess, is that even though the Niners will be packing up their stuff and heading home to watch the SuperBowl this year, this season was still a success and I can feel good about it.

Now, about those Packers… They played a good game on Sunday, and quite simply made the plays when they needed to. They followed their fearless leader, in Brett Favre, and I guarantee that these Packers will only go as far as Brett Favre will take them. I think that the Niners lost to a team on the brink of having one of those “destiny” playoff runs, where the aging star musters one of his greatest efforts to lead his team to victory, and although they are heading into the TWADome to play the super-powered Rams, I think I will be placing one of my two-dollar bets on a rolling Brett Favre. I just have a feeling on this one…

Until Next Time…