Good day faithful readers, welcome back to the three-ring circus that is my brain.  As you peruse this bit of literary rambling, please note that it comes from a changed man…  for the better. 

I have been changed forever by something I like to call, “The Michael Corleone Effect”.  Let me explain.  I had full intentions of taking this entire season off, not write a single column, and simply watch this NFL campaign from the sidelines, just like Vinny Testeverde and Doug Johnson had planned to do, only I wouldn’t be sporting a headset and holding a clipboard.

And then it happened…  I started watching the preseason…  I made NFL.com my home page…  I entered 6 NFL fantasy leagues…  and before I knew it…  I was back in.

I was back in a huge way.  I was comparing stats, I was evaluating rookies, I was pondering position depth, I was calculating salary cap numbers, and I was even looking at draft results.  To be blunt, I was “back in”.

And then, it dawned on me…  The NFL had exercised “The Michael Corleone Effect” on yours truly… when I came to that realization, I help my fists aloft, looked skyward and, just like Don Michael Corleone in Godfather III, I yelled…  “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back IN!”

I’ll be honest, there are definitely worse situations to be in, I mean, I could be Eric “the Yellow” Crouch’s agent or the guy who sells Lawyer Milloy Patriots jerseys or something.  But, anyway…

I just thought I would let you all know what went on… I mean, I have been incommunicado since Super Bowl Sunday, and I wanted to put all of your minds at ease.  (Yeah right…)

Anyway, now that I am fully immersed in the NFL again, let me bring you my season preview for each team, because I am sure that you NFL readers out there haven’t been subject to enough of those already.

(Did somebody sound Sarcasm Alert already?)

So, sit back, relax and enjoy this brief team-by-team preview of the NFL season to come, brought to you by the NFL and their insane 5 game preseason schedule, where the motto is… “We’ll trade injured superstars for ticket sales ANYDAY!”

Anyway, here we go… and be forewarned… this column may contain some actual journalistic content.

The AFC:

AFC East

Miami Dolphins:

Okay, anyone who knows me knows I have a certain disdain for some teams in the NFL, and the Dolphins are one of those teams.  But, I must be objective in my writing, so I will admit that they have somehow managed to improve their team this off-season.  The addition of Junior Seau is a good one, and it gives them a formidable linebacking corps, and their receivers are looking strong as well.  Add in Ricky Williams and Randy McMichael and you have a loaded lineup.  Except for one thing.  They still have Jay Fiedler at pivot.  Miami brought in Denver cast-off Brian Griese in the off-season and I will wager that he will be the starting QB by seasons end.  I have said it before and I will say it again, the Miami Dolphins will not win the SuperBowl with Jay Fiedler as their starting QB.  Would they win with Griese?  Who knows, but we have all seen what a change of scenery can do for a QB (a la Drew Bledsoe).

Buffalo Bills

I have to say this.  People are grossly underestimating the loss of Peerless Price.  This receiver complimented Eric Moulds’ mid-range possession style like butter compliments bread.  So, having dealt that side of the sandwich to Atlanta, whom do they depend on?  Josh Reed, another mid-range possession type.  Who are the Bills going to throw deep to?  We all know that Bledsoe loves to throw the deep ball, and without that threat defenses will be able to bring the heat a little more often.  Travis Henry will also be affected by the lack of a deep threat, because we all know that when teams can’t go deep, the safeties tend to creep up a little to help stop the run.  Of course, I am an idiot, and Buffalo could prove me wrong all together.  But we will see.  As for their pitiful defense of last season, the addition of Takeo Spikes makes that defense ten times the unit it was.  I look for that squad to be among the top 10-12 defenses in the league this year.

New England Patriots

This New England team does not look all that different from its SuperBowl winning form two years ago, so why wont they contend this year?  Well, for that exact reason.  New England brings new meaning to the term “standing pat” with its player movement in the past two years.  Granted, they did acquire Roosevelt Colvin from the Bears to help bolster their defense, but the recent release of Lawyer Milloy will cripple that secondary.  Their running game will be mediocre methinks, and the receivers will be about the same.  Tom Brady will be great as per usual, but they will need someone to step up on that offense if they are to contend for their division crown.

New York Jets

Wow.  Talk about the worst preseason imaginable.  Your young gun goes down with a buggered wrist and you now have to rely on an aging QB whom you relegated to back up duty when that same young gun emerged.  Couple that with the loss of some key offensive players in the off-season, and you have a recipe for disaster.  I look forward to another Herm Edwards rant about mid season, when his team is mired in a 6 game losing streak.  Of course, I may be wrong, and I probably will be, but I think you can bank on the fact that Chad Pennington will not be back in form until the 04 season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Boller or Redman?  Either way is doesn’t matter.  This team has some serious issues beyond which inexperienced QB to lay their hopes upon.  Ray Lewis is unhappy with some disrespectful rookies, and we all know that dissention amongst the ranks leads to some ugly play.  This team doesn’t score points at the best of times; they rely on their stellar defense to keep them afloat.  If that defense falters under tension between players, it could be a long year for Coach Billick.  Look for Jamal Lewis to regain his form after a ho-hum year coming off knee surgery, but they are thin at receiver.  Frank Sanders and Marcus Robinson will have to play the “change of scenery” card for career resurgence, in order to give the young QBs someone to throw to.

Cincinnati Bengals

Is this the year?  Is this finally the year that the Bengals dust themselves off and climb out of the proverbial NFL basement?  Time will tell.  But things are looking up.  Carson Palmer?  Good draft choice, but bad idea to start him this year (if they decide to do that).  I think they should let him sit and learn and stay healthy for a season, but that probably will not be the case.  I like the Bengals offensive squad; they have a great back in Dillon and some decent receivers (Hello Peter Warrick?  Time to step up, kid…) and their offensive line is as good as it has been in years.  The only thing holding them back is their defense, due to the loss of Spikes.  Tory James will help one side of the secondary, but they look very thin everywhere else.  Oh yeah, let’s not forget that whole “Bungles” mystique they have goin on…  where they somehow find ways to lose games… a lot of games.

Cleveland Browns

Is it just me, or does this Browns team resemble the Browns teams of old?  They have good QBs, a good RB, decent receivers and a tough defense?  I keep thinking I am going to see Kosar run out under center and hand it off to Kevin Mack or throw it up to Michael Jackson or Eric Metcalfe.  Am I crazy?  Those old Browns teams were as tough as they come, but they never could seem to get over the hump.  That same sentiment rings true for this squad, although, this year they have a QB controversy to deal with.  The QB of the future (Couch) is now relegated to clipboard duty and the unknown backup is stepping into the starting role.  If Holcomb struggles, how long until Couch re-enters the fray?  I honestly think that this team could push Pittsburgh for the division title if things go their way early, but that young defense will have to grow up in a hurry (Robert Griffith, here is where you earn your keep) for that to happen.

Pittsburgh Steelers

How weird is it that Jerome Bettis has lost his starting job to scat-back “Famous” Amos Zereoue?  Well, not that weird considering the Joan Rivers-like facelift this Steelers offense has undergone.  Gone are the days of ball control, pounding away with the running game and hoping the QB doesn’t screw things up.  Here are the days of a pass-happy Steelers team with dynamite receiving corps and a reborn QB.  Now, I am all for career resurgence, but I am still going to be skeptical when it comes to Tommy MadduXFL.  All last year I said that he would come tumbling to earth, and he never did, well unless you count that vicious hit he took against the Titans.  However, I think he will struggle this year, I mean, has this guy ever been the bona fide number one QB coming into an NFL campaign?  That sort of pressure has got to wear on a guy, and if he falters, whom do the Steelers turn to?  Chuck Batch, who, oddly enough, reminds this sportswriter, a lot of cast-off Kordell Stewart.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Manning, Harrison, Edge.  That is a trio I would take in any fantasy football draft.  But give me their defense and I am in for a long year.  Coach Tony Dungy is known for his defensive brilliance, but this team just does not have the talent on that side of the ball to get things going.  In fact, on NFL.com, they do not even have a starting SS listed on their depth chart.  I don’t know about you, but I think we are going to see the Colts involved a few shootouts this season.

Houston Texans

As the Texans get geared up for year 2 in the NFL, it seems that a lot of optimism is to be found in that locker room.  For what reason, I do not know.  The Texans had a stellar year last year, from an expansion point of view, and I think they are expecting to go upward form there.  Well, any expansion franchise can tell you that going upward is not as easy as it sounds.  This team is still severely short on talent, wait, check that, severely short on experienced talent, and I think it is going to be a long year for them.  If they win 4 games, this season will be a success.  But for some reason, I have a sinking feeling that an injury to Texans golden boy David Carr is in the cards.  They simply cannot protect him.  I don’t know, I just have a feeling.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Question.  What is the best way to instill confidence in your long time starting QB?  If you ask the Jaguars, they might say the best way to do that is to draft the player who will eventually replace him, then actively shop him around for numerous trade offers.  Way to go Jags, that is the way to get an aging injury-prone QB to give it his all!  Actually, if Brunell holds his form and Fred Taylor avoids getting injured for the 4^th straight season, this team might be able to sneak toward a playoff push.  They will be without Jimmy Smith for the first month of the season, as Jimmy decided to follow RJ Soward’s off season workout regimen, so that will definitely hurt their offense.  Look for JJ Stokes to see a whole lot more passes than he ever did in his San Fran days.  Their defense will be helped by the addition of Hugh Douglas, but after him, there is not a single big name to be found, so I guess they are banking on that whole “no respect” angle for defensive motivation.  Wow, Jack Del Rio has his work cut out for him.

Tennessee Titans

I absolutely love the Titans defense.  If they are not among the top 5 in total defense this season, then their coordinator needs to be fired.  The talent on that side of the ball is without question of the leagues best.  They trot out Jevon Kearse, Kevin Carter, Keith Bulluck, Samari Rolle AND Lance Schulters.  That is one helluva lineup.  So, on the offensive side of the ball, they still have Eddie George and Steve McNair, as well as emerging star WR Derrick Mason and the dependable Frank Wychek.  If the Titans don’t win this soft division and earn a high seed in the AFC playoffs, then Jeff Fisher should be out of a job.  Bottom line.  This team is my pick to win the AFC this year.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Ahh… “The Jake Plummer Experiment”.  Will this be the ultimate change of scenery example?  Or will this blow up in Shanahan’s face?  I think that we will see Jake struggle early and excel late, as he gets comfortable with the system and, above all else, having some decent talent around him.  What a shock to the system that must be, I mean, he has Portis to hand it off to, he has Shannon Sharpe at TE and he has Rod Smith and Easy Ed out there catching passes.  That is a far cry from his situation in Arizona, don’t you think?  I look for this team to contend for that AFCW crown this year, as this division is always very competitive, but if they lose a few division games, they may be hard-pressed to even get into the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs

Oh, the drama of it all…  Is Priest Holmes’ hip ready to go for another grueling year?  I mean, a hip is one of those important joints for running, don’t you think?  Does anyone remember the last standout RB to have a serious hip injury?  Does the name Bo Jackson ring a bell?  I’m telling you, I think KC fans should have reason to worry, because one awkward tumble and Priest is sidelined for good.  Hey, I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news or anything, but I think that people are taking this hip injury a little too lightly, in my opinion.  The Chiefs are a good young team, but they will fall victim to the tough AFCW again this year.  Their defense just isn’t good enough to bring them to the playoffs yet.

Oakland Raiders

How many years have people been saying the Raiders are too old and won’t be able to contend?  And every stinkin’ year the Raiders find ways to win, even going as far as the SuperBowl last year.  So, is this the year that Father Time finally catches up to them?  Well, who says that he hasn’t already?  Think about it, Gannon, while accurate and effective, is not the scrambling gun-slinger he once was, and Tim Brown, Jerry Rice and Rod Woodson have lost more than a few steps since their respective primes.  I say that age has already caught up with the Raiders, but that does not necessarily mean they still cannot be effective or dominate from time to time.  The only thing the Raiders have to worry about is the health of their aging stars, because we all know it takes a whole helluva lot longer to heal up as the years get plentiful.  Bottom line?  If Gannon gets hurt for an extended period of time, the Raiders are done, Marques Tuiasosopo is not the answer.  Oh yeah, there is that whole Bill Romanowski insanity thing too.  When all is said and done, I think that the Raiders will be a wildcard team at best.

San Diego Chargers

Notice to all future opponents of the Chargers.  Prepare to see a lot of Tomlinson.  Some more Tomlinson, and after that, a whole lot more of Tomlinson.  I would not be surprised if Tomlinson carries the ball like 400+ times this year.  I think the guy who is gong to benefit from the multitude of Tomlinson (other than Drew Brees) is David Boston.  A new acquisition for the Chargers, I think he will see a lot of open defensive backfields in games where Tomlinson has rushed for 150+ yards.  Now, if only Drew Brees can get the ball out there to him.  I am not sold on Brees just yet, he is too conservative for my liking, and he doesn’t seem to have the mustard to get the ball out there a lot and a long ways.  I mean, in his first full season as a starter, his longest pass play was a meager 52 yards.  Charger fans better hope that improves, because if they can’t get the ball downfield to Boston or Dwight, then Tomlinson’s yards per carry number will be like 3.1 (or, as I like to call it, the Eddie George career average).  Oh yeah, do you think that defense is going to miss Junior Seau a little?  They still have Donnie Edwards at linebacker, but Seau’s presence will be sorely missed, especially for a guy like Marcellus Wiley, as he is going to have to pick up the slack in stopping the run.

Ok, there you have it folks, that is a look at the AFC, from my slanted view of the world.  The AFC will be very tough this year and I look forward to it, and I may even wager to say that this is the stronger of the two conferences.  However, the NFC may have something to say about that… look for my NFC preview coming next week, but be warned… much like this column, it may contain actual journalistic content.

I know, its weird.

So, as I said in the outset, it is good to be back, although somewhat unwillingly, but the NFL has a strong hold one guys like me, and all who know me must have known that I would succumb to “The Michael Corleone Effect” a some point, and I don’t blame them, because once an addicted fan… always an addicted fan…

Until Next Time…

Look for Zim’s NFC Preview, due out early next week, and be sure to tune in each week for the famous “Zim’s Top Ten” where he looks at the week that was in the NFL.  If you wish to contact Zim, he can be reached at superzim@49ersparadise.cjb.net